Week 9 PICKS

Welcome back for another exciting installment of my NFL picks. Last week I went 8-5..not terrible, but not great either. I was 2 for 2 with my best bets so if you followed those congrats on making some money. The spreads have been tough lately as there is a clear separation of good teams and bad teams. Here we go.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (-6.5): Two very bad teams here. All of the analysts seem to be pretty confident that the Jags will win this week, and they do play much better at home. The Chiefs in my opinion are just worse. They need to get an o line and then maybe they can have a solid offense if Jamal Charles develops because we all know Larry Johnson is over the hill. Garrard will play great at home, they'll do their best to feed MOJO the ball but when needed they should have much success in the passing game.

My Pick: Jags -6.5

Baltimore Ravens vs. Cincinnati Bengals (+3): This should be a great game. It was the first time, the Ravens had the game but couldn't defend any passes in the middle of the field which Andre Caldwell and Carson Palmer connected on a few for to win the game. The Ravens are pissed off after 3 tough losses and showed it by handing the Broncos their first loss. They will continue this trend. On the other hand, the Bengals have been progressing throughout the season leading to an explosive game last week against the Bears. Will this continue? Or will they cool off after having a bye week, or are they more prepared? These questions will be answered on Sunday.

My Pick: Ravens -3: I think the Ravens want revenge. This will be a great game but I think the Ravens D causes a few more turnovers and keeps the Bengals punting a lot.

Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts (-8.5): The Texans have never won in Indy before. Their team this year is the best it's been, but they received a huge blow when they lost Owen Daniels, Schaubs' go to, for the season. The Colts defense is very banged up, they just lost a starting Cb and Bob Sanders for the season. This game will be a shoot out as both Peyton and Scaub can throw the ball. I still like the Colts to win at home, but not by more than a game winning TD.

My Pick: Texans +8.5

Washington Redskins vs. Atlanta Falcons (9.5): The Redskins need a win against the beaten up Falcons. Their season pretty much depends on it. But just because a team wants and needs a win, doesn't always mean they get it. Especially this season. A lot of stats I have heard about division rivalries or league rivalries or teams simply needing wins desperately have not held true for this season. This season, there is such a clear cut difference between the stronger and weaker teams. So although the Redskins would love to get a win that would boost their team morale and add a number to their win column, I think the Falcons will rebound from two losses, only one of which they really should've lost to in my opinion. They will put on a great show at home and embarrass the embarrassing Redskins.

My Pick: Falcons -9.5

Green Bay Packers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+10): This is another one of those games where I am just going to see the Packers may not be a super bowl caliber team yet but do the Bucs even deserve to be in the NFL? Green Bay will light them and their rookie QB up.

My Pick: Green Bay -10.5

Arizona Cardinals vs. Chicago Bears (-3): The Bears have been hit or miss this season, although in my opinion they are just meeting everyones expectations. They win games against opponents they should beat, and lose to the ones they should lose to. The Cardinals looked terrible last week against the Panthers. The Cardinals are also 3-0 on the road and Jay Cutler hasn't done enough to gain my trust. The Cardinals are a much better team than how they played last week and now with the emergence of Beanie Wells, they need to start running the ball more and becoming a complete football team.

My Pick: Cardinals +3

Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots (-10.5): The wildcat ran all over the pats last season. I think after a bye week for the patriots, bill will have them ready and prepared for it. And I believe if you can stop Miami's wildcat offense, you can beat them. I think Tom Brady is going to have a great day facing some young cornerbacks and they are going to represent at home.

My Pick: Pats -10.5

Carolina Panthers vs. New Orleans Saints (-13): Yes, the Panthers looked much better against the Cardinals last week as they picked Kurt Warner off a bunch. The difference between Arizona and the Saints is that the Saints also have a running game so the Panthers defense can't play the pass every time. The haven't beat a team by less than 10 points so far and I expect that trend to continue this week.

My Pick: Saints -13

Detroit Lions vs. Seattle Seahawks (-10): Seahawks should rebound at home. They're not a good team, but they are not on the Lions level.

My Pick: Seahawks -10

Tennessee Titans vs. San Francisco 49ers (-4): 49ers are the much better team here. Don't let one win against the Jaguars fool you. If Alex Smith can play like he's been playing, and keep the turnovers down, the 49ers will take this game with ease. Their defense is going to eat Vince Young alive.

My Pick: 49ers -4

San Diego Chargers vs. New York Giants (-4.5): Since the Giants played the Saints, I've been waiting for them to wake up and play like they should be playing. Hard nose football. Instead, they've been getting manhandled by their pats two opponents. Their weakness seems to be their passing d, and Philip Rivers is a man who will be able to take advantage of that. I really would like to think that the Giants are going to snap out of their flunk this week, but I just don't see it happening.

My Pick: Chargers +4.5

Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-3): Everyone seems to be pretty confident that the Eagles will take this one easily. I disagree. Last year, Dallas got blown out at the end of the season by Philly, but this is a new year. Dallas looked shaky at first, but seemed to be getting on a roll and I really believe this will continue in Philly. I think it will be a great game and can really go either way, but I don't think Westbrook is healthy enough to carry the load in the run game and if Dallas D can step up enough, they can steal a win on the road.

My Pick: Dallas +3

MNF:

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Denver Broncos (+3): I really don't know what to think here. I didn't trust the Broncos to begin with, despite how good a coach McDaniels may be. Then they go and gain my trust, and then last week lose to the Ravens. The Ravens are a great team, a playoff team definitely so I can't lose all of my trust in them. But I think Pitt is a very similar team to Baltimore and not saying they are going to do the exact same thing the Ravens did to beat the Broncos b/c McDaniels is much smarter than that. But I do believe the Steelers, like the Ravens will force a few costly turnovers that will be the difference in the game.

My Pick: Pitt -3

Sorry, I didn't really analyze each game in such depth, but when you have to write about each game, it gets kind of exhausting, and I'm not a professional so cut me some slack.

Best Bets:

Green Bay -10.5

49ers -4

Seahawks -10

Good luck this weekend